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.22LR Production Math (is is not pretty)

This is a discussion on .22LR Production Math (is is not pretty) within the Ammo Dump forums, part of the Firearm Forum category; Estimated Annual Production 2.5 Billon Rounds (Wikipedia) That is Approx 13,700 bricks of 500 per day. Sounds like allot? About 1,800 Walmarts sell Ammo, that ...


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Old January 27th, 2013, 03:35 PM   #1
 
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.22LR Production Math (is is not pretty)

Estimated Annual Production 2.5 Billon Rounds (Wikipedia)

That is Approx 13,700 bricks of 500 per day.

Sounds like allot? About 1,800 Walmarts sell Ammo, that is less than 8 bricks per day per Walmart.

Without substantial capital equipment say they can flex up 20%. That is still less than 10 bricks per day. If you went for adding capacity say 50% to 12 bricks per Walmart per day, if you started now it would take you 18 months minimum to get new lines in production.

It is better not to do the math.



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Old January 27th, 2013, 03:40 PM   #2
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Old January 27th, 2013, 04:57 PM   #3
 
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Those are very interesting numbers. 22 rimfire availability has been very spotty long before our current crisis, the local Wal-marts here have been out almost everytime I stop for the last year. With all the 10/22s and SR22s Ruger has sold in the last year alone is enough to put the pinch on the rimfire manufactures. I'm hoping the NRA will promote the Apple Seed shoots at every opportunity and Nationaly in the USA to attract new shooters to the sport. One with focus on ladies and junior shooters. When people discover just how much fun and safe responsible shooting is the ranks will grow by leaps and bounds.
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Old January 27th, 2013, 05:30 PM   #4
 
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With all the demand for 22LR ammunition, I have to think some current manufacturers will ramp up output by adding production lines, and possibly some companies not currently making rimfire ammo will start.

I doubt 22LR ammo is as difficult to manufacture as larger centerfire rounds.
It's likely a fully automated process using just a few machines.

And a new manufacturing company wouldn't necessarily build their plant here in the United States where the government will hassle them constantly.

In fact it wouldn't surprise me if one of the firearms manufacturers that has a huge stake in selling 22LR rifles, pistols, and revolvers might want to invest in 22 ammo production.
Maybe one of the firearms companies that made a fortune selling guns in 2012?

Last edited by jaxrider14; January 27th, 2013 at 07:07 PM.
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Old January 27th, 2013, 05:33 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jaxrider14 View Post
In fact it wouldn't surprise me if one of the firearms manufacturers that has a huge stake in selling 22LR rifles, pistols, and revolvers might want to invest in 22 ammo production.
Maybe one of the firearms companies that made a fortune guns in 2012?
Maybe Sturm Ruger would do that!
I'm so smart....
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Old January 27th, 2013, 05:43 PM   #6
 
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One can only hope that the Market Planners, Brand Managers and bean counters at ATI, the parent company of Federal, CCI, Speer, Blazer and other major .22 caliber cartridge manufactures, are on top of this and are strategically planning and investing in capital equipment appropriately.

With new legislation, the current and anticipated future costs of center fire ammunition, the market for .22LR is going to increase exponentially.
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Old January 27th, 2013, 07:10 PM   #7
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Quiet 1 View Post
One can only hope that the Market Planners, Brand Managers and bean counters at ATI, the parent company of Federal, CCI, Speer, Blazer and other major .22 caliber cartridge manufactures, are on top of this and are strategically planning and investing in capital equipment appropriately.

With new legislation, the current and anticipated future costs of center fire ammunition, the market for .22LR is going to increase exponentially.
That's my thinking. There's a nice profit to be made... almost guaranteed.
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Old January 27th, 2013, 07:11 PM   #8
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Not very uplifiting numbers as most of my guns are .22
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Old January 27th, 2013, 07:37 PM   #9
 
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New production? These will be the only jobs that Obama actually creates......
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Old January 27th, 2013, 10:40 PM   #10
 
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That is untill he gets his way with Feinstein as lead b!tch to start banning guns and ammo as well.

They are talking about the old register ammo like say 20 yrs ago.

The Communists are attacking on all fronts.

Wonder how many jobs Obama has eliminated in just 4 years? Gulf oil well drilling,Keystone pipe line,space program. Yes I know Bush killed the shuttle but that was for safety and the Constellation was suppose to come on line and that was killed by Obama. Now working on gun manufacturing.

His green jobs suck away our tax money to his buddies then they die,Solyndra and how many others?
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Old January 28th, 2013, 12:12 AM   #11
 
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Let's just face it... the democrats are more into job killing than job creation... the better to increase the dependent class who will keep them in power indefinitely.
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Old January 28th, 2013, 04:59 AM   #12
 
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Interesting topic. Thanks for starting it MeagerHair (I fit that description).

The ammo manufacturers will ramp up production as their production lines allow. They would be crazy to pass up the extra sales. The expansion of their factories is another matter. They would have to assess the long term outlook of 22LR sales. Right now the biggest driver of sales appears to be panic and hoarding. That will eventually die down. It might not go away completely but it will moderate with time.

There has been a significant increase in gun sales and that is what the ammo producers would look at. They are not going to sink a huge investment in more production equipment and training new personnel if the long term prospects for sales aren't there. They would rather ride out the current panic buying pushing their current production lines all out. If the new gun sales are there and they believe more shooting will take place they might take the plunge and build more manufacturing capacity

Just my thoughts.
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Old January 29th, 2013, 01:57 PM   #13
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Doesn't all this hoarded ammo have to result in lower future ammo sales? I mean if they bought a boatload of ammo in the last month it seems they're less likely to buy ammo in coming months, right?

I know a guy who's been sitting on 25,000 rounds of .22 CCI-Blazer that he picked up around 2006 at a price of only $8/brick. He bought back then as he saw the prices of metals & ammo rising. Seeing how he hasn't been shooting much in the last several years, he's still sitting on serious pile of .22s. He hasn't bought any since then and it doesn't appear he'll be buying any for years to come.

Seems like others would end up in a similar situation. That or everyone will figure what day they expect to die and then buy enough ammo to last the rest of their life. Perhaps they can turn a spare bedroom into an armory, though their lifetime supply might not be needed in that case as the wife might just kill them for doing so.
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Old January 29th, 2013, 02:06 PM   #14
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There has been a significant increase in gun sales and that is what the ammo producers would look at.
I think I read Ruger's sales were up 60% last year over 2011. A stunning increase that's only more stunning when you consider 2011 was already their best year ever up to that point.

Of course, the only gun sales that really result in more ammo demand are those sold to folks who are new to shooting. After all, you're not going to shoot anymore if you go from having 5 guns to owning 25 guns, are you?

I'd be curious as to how gun sales break down between first-time gun owners and folks who already own guns. Anybody ever seen any stats on that?
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Old January 29th, 2013, 04:09 PM   #15
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KJS View Post
I know a guy who's been sitting on 25,000 rounds of .22 CCI-Blazer that he picked up around 2006 at a price of only $8/brick. He bought back then as he saw the prices of metals & ammo rising. Seeing how he hasn't been shooting much in the last several years, he's still sitting on serious pile of .22s. He hasn't bought any since then and it doesn't appear he'll be buying any for years to come.
I stashed 20k rounds of .22LR back in 2008-9. Most was Wally World Federal bulk at $13.47, and I never bought more than two at one time. Since then, I have replaced what I shot. I plan to keep it at 20k rounds, although that's enough to last four years of my usual shooting trips.

I've got 1k rounds of .38, and I'll treat that the same.
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